The same mental shortcuts that make Americans wear lucky socks to a job interview are the ones that cost poker players money at the table.
We mapped demographics across the United States for active superstitions (lucky numbers, lucky objects, unlucky days, gut-feeling U-turns) and tested three classic poker biases disguised as everyday choices. Where superstition runs hottest, so does biased thinking.
According to America’s Superstition Index, a nationwide study put together by Ignition Poker, the Americans with the most superstitious habits are also the most likely to fall for classic cognitive decision traps.
The study tracked superstitious habits alongside three classic poker cognitive biases disguised as everyday decisions: the sunk cost fallacy, the gambler’s fallacy and the hot hand fallacy. Censuswide surveyed 1,000 nationally representative US adults between October 5 and 12, 2026.
Headline Statistics
- Superstition and cognitive bias correlation: Across all demographic groups, superstition and cognitive bias move together in near lockstep, with r = 0.97 across age, gender and region (where r = 1 represents a perfect positive link).
- Lucky numbers, unlucky odds: Americans who always use a lucky number are four times as likely to fall for the coin-flip trap as those who never do (51% vs 12%).
- The more superstitious, the more biased: Americans who always use a lucky number have a Bias Score of 47 out of 100, more than three times that of those who never do (14).
- The key demographic: Americans aged 25-34 are the nation’s most superstitious age group, with a Superstition Score of 56 out of 100 against a national average of 39, and the most bias-prone, with a Bias Score of 41 against 29 nationally.
- Lucky numbers: 30% of Americans often or always rely on a lucky number for passwords, lottery picks or important dates.
- Big decisions: 18% of Americans often or always avoid major financial or travel decisions on days like Friday the 13th or during Mercury retrograde.
- Lucky objects: 21% often or always carry or consult a lucky object before an important moment.
- Gut feeling: 30% often or always overturn a logical decision purely on a hunch they can’t explain.
- Following a hunch: Nine in 10 Americans (90%) have overturned a logical decision on a gut feeling at least once. Only 10% say they never have.
- Superstitions come in packs: 58% of Americans who always use a lucky number also often or always carry a lucky object, compared with just 2% of those who never use one. More than half (54%) also avoid big decisions on unlucky days, against 3%.
Decision Quality
- Major decisions: 60% of Americans made at least one major decision in the past 12 months, led by major purchases (30%), financial investments (21%) and career changes (18%).
- Superstitious and decisive: 78% of Americans who often or always avoid unlucky days made a major decision in the past year, compared with 54% of those who rarely or never do. They were also nearly twice as likely to make a significant financial investment (34% vs 18%).
- Superstitious investors: Americans who made a significant financial investment in the past year were twice as likely to avoid big decisions on unlucky days (30% vs 15%) and more likely to believe a run of bad luck is due to turn (46% vs 28%), to rely on a lucky number (39% vs 28%) and to get the coin flip wrong (36% vs 28%).
- Less satisfied: Of the major decisions made by Americans who fell for the coin-flip trap, 71% turned out satisfactorily, compared with 80% for those who answered correctly. The sunk cost trap showed the same gap (72% vs 80%).
- Satisfaction: 84% are satisfied with how a major purchase turned out and 81% with a financial investment, but career changes were the least satisfying (66%).
The Poker Parallel
- Luck turns: 32% of Americans often or always believe a run of bad luck is due to turn around.
- Tails is due: 19% think a coin that has landed on heads repeatedly is more likely to land on tails next time, and a further 11% think heads is on a streak. In total, 30% got the flip wrong.
- Hot streak: 28% think a salesperson on a winning run has better-than-normal odds on the next independent pitch.
- Sunk cost: 25% would pay $1,500 to fix a failing car because they have already spent so much on it.
- One trap leads to another: Americans who fell for the coin-flip trap were more than twice as likely to back the salesperson’s hot streak (45% vs 20%).
- Lucky charms, costly repairs: Americans who often or always carry a lucky object are 2.6 times as likely to sink $1,500 into the failing car (44% vs 17%).
- Unlucky days, unlucky odds: 51% of Americans who often or always avoid unlucky days got the coin flip wrong, compared with 21% of those who rarely or never do.
Demographic breakdown
Superstitious habits (% who do each often or always)
| GROUP | RESPONDENTS | SUPERSTITION SCORE | USE A LUCKY NUMBER | AVOID BIG DECISIONS ON UNLUCKY DAYS | CARRY A LUCKY OBJECT | GUT-FEELING U-TURN |
| Men | 500 | 40 | 29% | 22% | 24% | 29% |
| Women | 500 | 37 | 31% | 15% | 17% | 30% |
| 18-24 | 117 | 48 | 33% | 23% | 26% | 34% |
| 25-34 | 168 | 56 | 48% | 39% | 42% | 48% |
| 35-44 | 172 | 42 | 31% | 22% | 28% | 37% |
| 45-54 | 152 | 36 | 30% | 16% | 18% | 26% |
| 55+ | 391 | 28 | 21% | 7% | 8% | 19% |
Poker traps (% who fell for each; bad luck is due = often or always)
| GROUP | BIAS SCORE | PAY $1,500 TO FIX THE CAR | GOT THE COIN FLIP WRONG | BACK THE HOT STREAK | BELIEVE BAD LUCK IS DUE |
| Men | 30 | 27% | 29% | 30% | 34% |
| Women | 27 | 23% | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| 18-24 | 35 | 29% | 36% | 34% | 42% |
| 25-34 | 41 | 35% | 44% | 36% | 47% |
| 35-44 | 30 | 31% | 27% | 26% | 34% |
| 45-54 | 27 | 19% | 31% | 30% | 28% |
| 55+ | 22 | 19% | 23% | 22% | 23% |
- Generation gap: Americans aged 25-34 are more than five times as likely as over-55s to avoid big decisions on unlucky days (39% vs 7%) and to carry a lucky object (42% vs 8%).
- Men vs women: Men are more likely than women to avoid big decisions on unlucky days (22% vs 15%) and to carry a lucky object (24% vs 17%), while lucky numbers are equally popular (29% vs 31%).
Regional breakdown
Superstitious habits (% who do each often or always)
| GROUP | RESPONDENTS | SUPERSTITION SCORE | USE A LUCKY NUMBER | AVOID BIG DECISIONS ON UNLUCKY DAYS | CARRY A LUCKY OBJECT | GUT-FEELING U-TURN |
| Midwest | 208 | 37 | 26% | 16% | 17% | 31% |
| Northeast | 170 | 34 | 28% | 14% | 18% | 25% |
| South | 382 | 38 | 31% | 18% | 21% | 30% |
| West | 240 | 44 | 34% | 24% | 26% | 31% |
Poker traps (% who fell for each; bad luck is due = often or always)
| GROUP | BIAS SCORE | PAY $1,500 TO FIX THE CAR | GOT THE COIN FLIP WRONG | BACK THE HOT STREAK | BELIEVE BAD LUCK IS DUE |
| Midwest | 29 | 32% | 29% | 29% | 26% |
| Northeast | 23 | 19% | 22% | 18% | 32% |
| South | 29 | 23% | 31% | 30% | 33% |
| West | 31 | 26% | 33% | 29% | 35% |
- Regional traps: The Midwest is the most likely region to sink $1,500 into the failing car (32% vs 19% in the Northeast), the South the most likely to back the salesperson’s hot streak (30% vs 18%), and the West the most likely to avoid big decisions on unlucky days (24% vs 14%).
- Clearest thinkers: The Northeast is the least bias-prone region, with a Bias Score of 23 against 29 to 31 elsewhere.
Methodology
Censuswide surveyed 1,000 nationally representative US adults (18+) between October 5 and 12, 2026. Percentages are of all respondents, including those who answered “not sure”.
Superstition Score: the average of four habits (using a lucky number, avoiding major decisions on certain days, carrying or consulting a lucky object, and overturning a logical decision on a gut feeling), scored from never (0) to always (100).
Bias Score: the average share of people falling for four decision traps: paying to fix the failing car (sunk cost), getting the coin flip wrong (gambler’s fallacy or streak thinking), backing the salesperson’s hot streak (hot hand) and often or always believing bad luck is due to turn.
The correlation (r) compares the two scores across 11 groups: two genders, five age bands and four regions. Decision satisfaction figures combine all five types of major decisions.
