Nearly a third of people in Miami believe they could beat LeBron James, half of Virginia believes they could keep a poker face to win $10k, while one in 10 in Dallas back themselves to beat an elephant in a fight
The United States of America is the land of opportunity, famous for being home to people with unwavering self-belief that they can achieve anything. But where does healthy optimism turn into overconfidence and bravado?
Extensive new research from IgnitionCasino has revealed the cities and states of the USA who back their abilities more than any others.
The leading casino brand conducted a detailed survey, in which respondents were asked a number of questions about their confidence in a number of scenarios. The responses were then split into sections, with a top 10 ranking of the most confident cities and states within each.
Those sections centre around sporting achievements, having a millionaire mindset to succeed at poker, where they think the United States ranks in terms of global likeability, general confidence in a variety of situations and finally how capable each place actually is, designed to see who can actually back up their confidence.
Sporting legends: Who backs themselves to go for gold?
Kicking us off in the US Confidence Survey, we look at sporting feats and achievements ahead of a huge summer of sport for the USA.
Here, respondents were asked how confident they would be when tasked with scoring one point against LeBron James in a game of one v one basketball, kicking a field goal to win the Super Bowl and scoring a goal for the USMNT at the 2026 World Cup.
Key findings include:
- Los Angeles is the most confident sporting city in the country, with an average of 30.8% of respondents showing at least some level of confidence across all three situations.
- Nearly one in three people in Miami would expect to score at least one point against LeBron James, while over a third of people in California as a whole rate their own abilities similarly.
- Almost a third of Los Angelians would back themselves to kick a winning field goal in the Super Bowl.
- Columbus aside, at least 17% of all respondents within the top 10 most confident cities and states for sport believe they could score a goal for the USMNT at the 2026 World Cup.
| TOP 10 CITIES – % OF RESPONDENTS WHO WOULD BE CONFIDENT IN THE FOLLOWING SITUATIONS | ||||
| Location | Score one point v LeBron in a 1v1 game | Kick a field goal to win the Super Bowl | Score a goal for the USMNT at the 2026 World Cup | Average |
| Los Angeles, CA | 30% | 32.5% | 30% | 30.8% |
| Miami, FL | 32.3% | 25.8% | 29% | 29% |
| Atlanta, GA | 29.4% | 27.5% | 23.5% | 26.8% |
| Houston, TX | 31.4% | 25.7% | 22.9% | 26.7% |
| Dallas, TX | 25% | 25% | 27.1% | 25.7% |
| Charlotte, NC | 22.1% | 29.9% | 22.1% | 24.7% |
| Chicago, IL | 23.5% | 22.4% | 19.4% | 21.8% |
| Jacksonville, FL | 15.8% | 23.7% | 23.7% | 21.1% |
| Columbus, OH | 22.2% | 25.9% | 13% | 20.4% |
| Indianapolis, IN | 21.7% | 21.7% | 17.4% | 20.3% |
| TOP 10 STATES – % OF RESPONDENTS WHO WOULD BE CONFIDENT IN THE FOLLOWING SITUATIONS | ||||
| Location | Score one point v LeBron in a 1v1 game | Kick a field goal to win the Super Bowl | Score a goal for the USMNT at the 2026 World Cup | Average |
| California | 37.5% | 31.2% | 29.7% | 32.8% |
| Georgia | 32.4% | 32.4% | 24.3% | 29.7% |
| Illinois | 28.6% | 34.3% | 25.7% | 29.5% |
| Virginia | 23.3% | 36.7% | 26.7% | 28.9% |
| Texas | 25.6% | 26.7% | 24.4% | 25.6% |
| Florida | 24.2% | 25.8% | 25.8% | 25.3% |
| New York | 31.2% | 20.8% | 22.1% | 24.7% |
| Ohio | 28.6% | 26.5% | 18.4% | 24.5% |
| North Carolina | 21.7% | 28.3% | 17.4% | 22.5% |
| Michigan | 20.5% | 23.1% | 17.9% | 20.5% |
Poker kingpins: Who has the millionaire mindset?
Poker is the ultimate test of confidence — something anyone who’s ever sat at a real-money poker table knows all too well. Hold your bluff and you could earn yourself a heap of cash, but lose your nerve and it could come crashing down.
Within this section, respondents were quizzed on their level of confidence within the following scenarios:
- Maintaining an unreadable poker face against a professional poker player to win a $10,000 pot
- Making $1m within a year by any legal means
- They were also asked to rate their own level of intelligence, with the percentage below showing those who believe themselves to be above average.
Key findings include:
- Detroit is the city with the greatest poker mindset, while Virginia tops the state in statewide results.
- More than half of the respondents in Detroit and Charlotte believe their intelligence to be above average.
- Half of the respondents within Virginia would have confidence in maintaining an unreadable poker face to bluff their way to $10,000.
- More than one in five people in each of the top 10 cities and states feel as though they would be able to make £1m within a year by any legal means.
| TOP 10 CITIES – % OF RESPONDENTS WHO WOULD BE CONFIDENT IN THE FOLLOWING SITUATIONS | ||||
| City | Maintain unreadable poker face while bluffing against a professional to win $10k | Make $1m in a year by any legal means | Rate intelligence above average | Average |
| Detroit, MI | 41.3% | 26.1% | 52.2% | 39.9% |
| Charlotte, NC | 40.3% | 27.3% | 51.9% | 39.8% |
| Miami, FL | 38.7% | 38.7% | 41.9% | 39.8% |
| Jacksonville, FL | 39.5% | 26.3% | 44.7% | 36.8% |
| Phoenix, AZ | 39.3% | 32.1% | 35.7% | 35.7% |
| New York, NY | 43.5% | 23.1% | 38.9% | 35.2% |
| Los Angeles, CA | 35% | 32.5% | 37.5% | 35% |
| Dallas, TX | 35.4% | 29.2% | 39.6% | 34.7% |
| Memphis, TN | 48.3% | 31% | 24.1% | 34.5% |
| Houston, TX | 42.9% | 25.7% | 31.4% | 33.3% |
| TOP 10 STATES – % OF RESPONDENTS WHO WOULD BE CONFIDENT IN THE FOLLOWING SITUATIONS | ||||
| Location | Maintain unreadable poker face while bluffing against a professional to win $10k | Make $1m in a year by any legal means | Rate intelligence above average | Average |
| Virginia | 50% | 36.7% | 36.7% | 41% |
| Michigan | 43.6% | 25.6% | 53.8% | 41% |
| Florida | 39.4% | 33.3% | 43.9% | 38.9% |
| Ohio | 34.7% | 22.4% | 53.1% | 36.7% |
| Texas | 40% | 28.9% | 37.8% | 36% |
| North Carolina | 37% | 23.9% | 45.7% | 35.5% |
| California | 37.5% | 26.6% | 35.9% | 33.3% |
| New York | 42.9% | 22.1% | 33.8% | 32.9% |
| Georgia | 32.4% | 27% | 37.8% | 32.4% |
| Pennsylvania | 37.7% | 24.5% | 34% | 32.1% |
Global likeability: Where do people think the US ranks in terms of global likeability?
Confidence can also come from a person’s view on how they are viewed by others. Here, respondents were asked where they believe the United States ranks in terms of global likeability.
Key findings include:
- Two in five people in Houston believe the global opinion of the United States to be net positive, while almost one third believe it to be among the most-liked countries in the world.
- On a state level, Georgia is at the top for the highest proportion of respondents who believe international opinion of the United State to be net positive.
- Despite 30.4% of those in Detroit believing that people across the global have a net positive view of the USA, only 8.7% believe it is among the most-liked countries in the world.
- 27.6% of Americans believe their country is among the most liked globally.
| Where does the US rank in terms of likeability worldwide? TOP 10 CITIES – % OF RESPONDENTS | ||
| City | Among the most-liked countries | Net positive |
| Houston, TX | 28.6% | 40% |
| Atlanta, GA | 21.6% | 37.8% |
| Dallas, TX | 29.2% | 37.5% |
| New York, NY | 15.7% | 34.3% |
| Memphis, TN | 13.8% | 31% |
| Detroit, MI | 8.7% | 30.4% |
| Philadelphia, PA | 16.1% | 30.4% |
| Charlotte, NC | 18.2% | 29.9% |
| Miami, FL | 16.1% | 29% |
| New Orleans, LA | 14.3% | 28.6% |
| Where does the US rank in terms of likeability worldwide? TOP 10 STATES – % OF RESPONDENTS | ||
| State | Among the most-liked countries | Net positive |
| Georgia | 21.6% | 37.8% |
| South Carolina | 25% | 37.5% |
| Michigan | 10.3% | 35.9% |
| Indiana | 16.1% | 35.5% |
| New York | 15.7% | 34.3% |
| Virginia | 13.3% | 33.3% |
| Texas | 24.4% | 32.2% |
| Pennsylvania | 13.2% | 28.3% |
| Florida | 18.2% | 25.8% |
| Illinois | 14.3% | 25.7% |
General confidence: Which cities and states would be confident in the following scenarios?
While sporting ability and having a poker mindset are prominent ways in which bravado, overconfidence or hubris can show itself, there are plenty of scenarios that don’t fall under those umbrellas.
Here, respondents were asked what their level of confidence would be in the following situations:
- Landing a plane relying solely on Air Traffic Control
- Jumping out of a second storey window into a moving garbage truck without sustaining injury
- Surviving a week in the wilderness with nothing but the clothes on their back and a pocket knife
- Surviving a year in a zombie apocalypse
- Solving a crime before the police
- Beating Noah Lyles in a 100 meter sprint with a head start of 50 meters or under.
- Facing an elephant in a fight unarmed.
Key findings include:
- Those in New Orleans have the highest level of self-confidence when compared to any other city in the United states, with an average of 32% having some level of confidence in each of the listed situations.
- Nearly half of those in Louisiana’s biggest city give themselves a chance of surviving for at least a year in a zombie apocalypse.
- A minimum of one in four people in all of the top 10 most confident cities would have some level of confidence in landing a plane.
- More than one in 10 people in both Dallas and Houston believe they could beat an elephant in an unarmed fight, while 10% of respondents across the state of Virginia think the same
- 3.2% of all Americans surveyed believe that they could beat Noah Lyles in a 100m race with no head start.
| GENERAL CONFIDENCE TOP 10 CITIES – % OF RESPONDENTS WHO WOULD BE CONFIDENT IN THE FOLLOWING SITUATIONS | ||||||||
| City | Could land a plane relying solely on Air Traffic Control | Jump out of a second storey window into moving garbage truck with no injury | Survive a week in the wilderness with just a pocket knife | Survive a year in a zombie apocalypse | Solve a crime before the police | Could beat Noah Lyles over 100m with <50m head start | Could beat an elephant in an unarmed fight | Average confidence % |
| New Orleans, LA | 33.3% | 23.8% | 57.1% | 47.6% | 38.1% | 23.9% | 0% | 32% |
| Phoenix, AZ | 35.7% | 39.3% | 42.9% | 32.1% | 42.9% | 21.4% | 7.1% | 31.6% |
| Los Angeles, CA | 30% | 37.5% | 37.5% | 42.5% | 37.5% | 27.5% | 7.5% | 31.4% |
| Memphis, TN | 20.7% | 24.1% | 41.4% | 44.8% | 51.7% | 17.1% | 3.4% | 29% |
| Houston, TX | 34.3% | 25.7% | 45.7% | 40% | 31.4% | 14.4% | 11.4% | 29% |
| Dallas, TX | 27.1% | 22.9% | 43.8% | 37.5% | 37.5% | 23% | 10.4% | 28.9% |
| Atlanta, GA | 25.5% | 21.6% | 39.2% | 31.4% | 47.1% | 31.5% | 3.9% | 28.6% |
| Miami, FL | 32.3% | 22.6% | 32.3% | 35.5% | 32.3% | 22.6% | 6.5% | 26.3% |
| Jacksonville | 31.6% | 21.1% | 28.9% | 18.4% | 34.2% | 26.4% | 5.3% | 23.7% |
| Detroit, MI | 26.1% | 17.4% | 34.8% | 41.3% | 26.1% | 15.2% | 4.3% | 23.6% |
| GENERAL CONFIDENCE TOP 10 STATES – % OF RESPONDENTS WHO WOULD BE CONFIDENT IN THE FOLLOWING SITUATIONS | ||||||||
| State | Could land a plane relying solely on Air Traffic Control | Jump out of a second story window into moving garbage truck with no injury | Survive a week in the wilderness with just a pocket knife | Survive a year in a zombie apocalypse | Solve a crime before the police | Beat Noah Lyles over 100m with <50m head start | Beat an elephant in an unarmed fight | Average confidence |
| Virginia | 33.3% | 30% | 46.7% | 46.7% | 43.3% | 13.3% | 10% | 31.9% |
| Georgia | 27% | 24.3% | 40.5% | 37.8% | 48.6% | 40.5% | 2.7% | 31.6% |
| California | 25% | 34.4% | 40.6% | 39.1% | 31.2% | 25% | 6.2% | 28.8% |
| Arizona | 32.1% | 32.1% | 35.7% | 32.1% | 42.9% | 17.8% | 3.6% | 28% |
| Texas | 27.8% | 23.3% | 43.3% | 38.9% | 34.4% | 17.7% | 7.8% | 27.6% |
| New York | 27.8% | 27.8% | 34.3% | 37% | 36.1% | 22.3% | 4.6% | 27.1% |
| Ohio | 38.8% | 22.4% | 30.6% | 28.6% | 32.7% | 20.3% | 6.1% | 25.6% |
| Florida | 31.8% | 22.7% | 30.3% | 27.3% | 34.8% | 24.2% | 6.1% | 25.3% |
| Indiana | 29% | 19.4% | 41.9% | 38.7% | 29% | 12.9% | 0% | 24.4% |
| New Jersey | 18.2% | 31.8% | 27.3% | 31.8% | 18.2% | 27.1% | 9.1% | 23.4% |
Capability: Who actually has the life experience to back up their confidence?
Having confidence going into any situation is all well and good and, clearly, there are plenty across the United States who aren’t fazed by much. But what is the use of that confidence without the ability to back it up?
Here, we rank the top 10 cities and states where people have the best reason to flaunt their confidence, based on the achievements of the survey respondents within the last year.
Key findings include:
- Those respondents in Phoenix, and Arizona in its entirety, can hold their head the highest when claiming their ability, topping the charts in the capability rankings.
- There were zero respondents in either Indiana or South Carolina who have spoken another language competently within the last year.
- At least half of all respondents in the top 10 most capable cities and states had remembered directions without using GPS within the last year, while almost two thirds had cooked a meal from scratch.
| Which of the following tasks have you completed in the last year? TOP 10 CITIES – % OF RESPONDENTS | ||||||||
| City | Cooked a meal from scratch | Remembered directions without using GPS | Read three books | Changed a car tire | Spoke another language competently | Run over three miles without stopping | Built a piece of flatpack furniture | Average |
| Phoenix, AZ | 75% | 64.3% | 53.6% | 21.4% | 10.7% | 21.4% | 3.6% | 35.7% |
| Memphis, TN | 79.3% | 65.5% | 37.9% | 24.1% | 10.3% | 13.8% | 6.9% | 34% |
| Boston, MA | 71.4% | 57.1% | 57.1% | 17.9% | 10.7% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 32.6% |
| Denver, CO | 76.5% | 55.9% | 47.1% | 26.5% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 8.8% | 32.4% |
| Washington DC | 66.7% | 56.4% | 33.3% | 20.5% | 7.7% | 17.9% | 15.4% | 31.1% |
| Los Angeles, CA | 70% | 55% | 32.5% | 25% | 15% | 12.5% | 7.5% | 31.1% |
| Dallas, TX | 70.8% | 58.3% | 41.7% | 22.9% | 12.5% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 30.9% |
| Indianapolis, IN | 67.4% | 63% | 52.2% | 15.2% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 30.7% |
| Charlotte, NC | 63.6% | 59.7% | 46.8% | 19.5% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 5.2% | 30.2% |
| Miami, FL | 67.7% | 61.3% | 35.5% | 19.4% | 12.9% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 30% |
| Which of the following tasks have you completed in the last year? TOP 10 STATES – % OF RESPONDENTS | ||||||||
| State | Cooked a meal from scratch | Remembered directions without using GPS | Read three books | Changed a car tire | Spoke another language competently | Run over three miles without stopping | Built a piece of flatpack furniture | Average |
| Arizona | 82.1% | 67.9% | 53.6% | 21.4% | 7.1% | 21.4% | 7.1% | 37.2% |
| Virginia | 66.7% | 56.7% | 43.3% | 33.3% | 10% | 23.3% | 10% | 34.8% |
| South Carolina | 79.2% | 70.8% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 8.3% | 4.2% | 33.9% |
| California | 70.3% | 57.8% | 39.1% | 29.7% | 17.2% | 10.9% | 7.8% | 33.3% |
| Ohio | 67.3% | 55.1% | 44.9% | 24.5% | 2% | 12.2% | 6.1% | 30.3% |
| Indiana | 67.7% | 71% | 48.4% | 12.9% | 0% | 3.2% | 6.5% | 30% |
| Texas | 65.6% | 50% | 34.4% | 26.7% | 15.6% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 29.9% |
| Florida | 66.7% | 59.1% | 33.3% | 21.2% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 4.5% | 29.4% |
| North Carolina | 63% | 56.5% | 45.7% | 17.4% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 29.2% |
| New York | 71.3% | 50% | 39.8% | 14.8% | 12% | 1.9% | 8.3% | 28.3% |
Methodology
- The research was conducted by Censuswide, among a sample of 1,000 respondenra. The data was collected between 4/14/26 and 4/17/26. Censuswide is a member of the Market Research Society (MRS) and the British Polling Council (BPC), and a signatory of the Global Data Quality Pledge. We adhere to the MRS Code of Conduct and ESOMAR principles.
- Once all survey results were recorded and grouped, each city and state was ranked based on the average level of confidence within each grouping.
- Only the top 10 cities and states within each grouping are shown above.
